8/25/21 The above chart analyzes data from the last two months and begins near the end of June when we began to experience our most recent Covid-19 case spike. It shows the percentage increase in the seven day average number of cases over the previous week. With cases now starting to drop in the states that experienced early waves, we see a clear pattern in the rate of increase slowing, with the x- axis representing zero weekly growth. There is a strong possibility of a daily case peak occurring in the first week of September or earlier.
We predict that, after growth reaches zero, daily cases may drop by up to 20% in the first week. This would be consistent with other countries like India and the UK. Several weeks of steep decline are needed over the next two months leading up to cold and flu season in the Northern Hemisphere. We should be under 100k daily cases in the USA by the last week of September or first week of October.
7-day daily case average totals were taken from worldometer.info